The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.

Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables sfcWind, tas, pr, tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.

Metric xgboost cnn naive lstm xgboost_custom
mae 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.07 0.09
cor 0.88 0.87 0.83 0.86 0.86
ratio_of_sd 0.86 0.93 0.81 0.87 1.01
KGE 0.81 0.78 0.69 0.80 0.56
amplitude_mae 0.16 0.13 0.22 0.14 0.13
maximum_difference 6.20 6.31 6.29 6.30 6.00
sign_correlation 0.60 0.55 0.60 0.60 0.58
extreme_correlation 0.58 0.69 0.52 0.64 0.65
amount_rainy_hours_mae 1.55 1.55 2.23 1.69 2.62
qqplot_mae 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.05
acf_mae 0.10 0.06 0.14 0.07 0.10
extremogram_mae 0.06 0.03 0.07 0.03 0.05

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97